Monday Setup
Paths: Up if backwardation keeps widening and confirms a tighter prompt balance. Flat if structure stabilizes and flat price does most of the talking. Down if the front loosens back toward flat and warns the move is losing prom...
Source post
WTI M1-M2 is sitting at 0.04$/bbl with a -0.22 move over the last five sessions. WTI M1-M2: 0.04$/bbl 5-session move: -0.22 In plain terms: Prompt structure is positive but not extreme, so the balance read is constructive without screaming shortage. See signals before the move ->
Follow-up context
Paths: Up if backwardation keeps widening and confirms a tighter prompt balance. Flat if structure stabilizes and flat price does most of the talking. Down if the front loosens back toward flat and warns the move is losing prom...
Prompt structure is often a cleaner physical-balance read than flat price alone because it reacts faster to near-term barrel tightness or relief.
More notes in the system
Wednesday EIA Check
Commercial US crude stocks are at 723.1 MMbbl (+11.3 w/w). SPR sits at 298.7 MMbbl, putting total crude stocks at 1021.8 MMbbl. Commercial: 723.1 MMbbl (+11.3 w/w) SPR: 298.7 MMbbl (-6.1 w/w)
Monday Setup
WTI M1-M2 is sitting at 0.83$/bbl with a -0.44 move over the last five sessions. WTI M1-M2: 0.83$/bbl 5-session move: -0.44 Monday setup: start with prompt WTI structure so the week begins from a balance read, not just a headline price level.
Friday Wrap
CL1 $82.09 +4.2% | Brent $87.64 +3.8% on the week. USO +6.0% | BNO +6.0% XLE +6.2% | XOP +7.7% What this means: Crude and energy equities moved together to the upside, which is a cleaner bullish confirmation than a commodities-only bounce.