Monday Setup
In plain terms: Prompt structure has softened into flat or contango territory, which is a warning that the balance read is looser than headline crude strength may suggest.
Source post
WTI M1-M2 is sitting at -0.03$/bbl with a -0.74 move over the last five sessions. WTI M1-M2: -0.03$/bbl 5-session move: -0.74 See signals before the move ->
Follow-up context
In plain terms: Prompt structure has softened into flat or contango territory, which is a warning that the balance read is looser than headline crude strength may suggest.
Paths: Up if backwardation keeps widening and confirms a tighter prompt balance. Flat if structure stabilizes and flat price does most of the talking. Down if the front loosens back toward flat and warns the move is losing prom...
More notes in the system
Wednesday EIA Check
Commercial US crude stocks are at 723.1 MMbbl (+11.3 w/w). SPR sits at 298.7 MMbbl, putting total crude stocks at 1021.8 MMbbl. Commercial: 723.1 MMbbl (+11.3 w/w) SPR: 298.7 MMbbl (-6.1 w/w)
Monday Setup
WTI M1-M2 is sitting at 0.83$/bbl with a -0.44 move over the last five sessions. WTI M1-M2: 0.83$/bbl 5-session move: -0.44 Monday setup: start with prompt WTI structure so the week begins from a balance read, not just a headline price level.
Friday Wrap
CL1 $82.09 +4.2% | Brent $87.64 +3.8% on the week. USO +6.0% | BNO +6.0% XLE +6.2% | XOP +7.7% What this means: Crude and energy equities moved together to the upside, which is a cleaner bullish confirmation than a commodities-only bounce.