Saturday Research
Main miss: CL1 1d called Bearish 9%, but the realized move was +1.2%. Clues: Supply disruption +0.0% | Chokepoint risk +5.1% | Oil-bullish news +2.7%
Source post
Latest resolved crude calls went 0/2 right. Main miss was CL1 1d. CL1 1d MISS | Bearish 9% | +1.2% CL1 5d OPEN | Bearish 0% | n/a Get the deeper structure read ->
Follow-up context
Main miss: CL1 1d called Bearish 9%, but the realized move was +1.2%. Clues: Supply disruption +0.0% | Chokepoint risk +5.1% | Oil-bullish news +2.7%
Live lean into next week: Brent 5d Bullish 100%. Latest clues: Supply disruption +0.0% | Chokepoint risk +5.1% | Oil-bullish news +2.7% Get the deeper structure read ->
More notes in the system
Saturday Research
Latest resolved crude calls went 1/2 right. Main miss was CL1 1d. CL1 1d MISS | Bullish 58% | -1.2% CL1 5d OPEN | Bearish 0% | n/a Get the deeper structure read ->
CL1 -3.1% on the latest session.
CL1 -3.1% on the latest session to $77.72. Same-session ETFs: USO +0.0% | BNO +0.0% Same-session equities: XLE +0.0% | XOP +0.0% What this means: Futures moved first; now flows, inventories, and oil beta need to confirm it.
Suez / Red Sea friction is +70.3% versus its recent baseline.
Suez / Red Sea friction is +70.3% versus its recent baseline. 7-day average: +10.1% Median underway speed: 4.0 kn See the workflow -> See the workflow ->